Concept cars and a handful of hybrids aside, we’re still in for a wait. The cars of tomorrow could present significant improvements in fuel efficiency, however, if President Obama’s newly proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards become law. If finalized, the standards would apply to model year 2012 through 2016 passenger cars, light-duty trucks and SUVs, and require 39 mpg for passenger cars and 30 mpg for light trucks, or an average of 35.5 mpg/250 grams per mile of CO2 for the total fleet by 2016.
But will automakers be up to the challenge?
Work in progress
The Department of Transportation estimates these new standards would reduce 890 million metric tons of greenhouse gases and save approximately 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of the model years covered, translating to significant health benefits and fuel savings for drivers.
Of course, technology doesn’t come without cost. The new standards would likely increase the price of the average car by $1,300, but Obama claims typical drivers should see a return within three years and save $2,800 over the life of the vehicle thanks to better gas mileage.
Model year 2011 standards have already been raised to a combined average of 27.3 mpg for passenger cars, light trucks and SUVs – which were previously exempt from the program – saving an estimated 887 million gallons of fuel over the lifetime of these vehicles, and reducing CO2 emissions by 8.3 million metric tons, according to the EPA.
Still, automotive experts remain split between two outlooks: those who say more fuel-efficient vehicles will boost vehicle sales, thus improving the economy and the automotive industry, and those who say cars and trucks will not only lose their unique appeal to buyers, but also the power to tow, haul and perform as in the past.
More importantly, safety remains an issue. Many experts question whether vehicles created under CAFE standards will be as safe as those we drive today. According to a 2002 National Academy of Sciences report on the impact of CAFE standards, because the easiest way for manufacturers to increase vehicle economy is to decrease vehicle weight, increases to CAFE standards would likely have a negative impact on safety, leading to more highway fatalities.
NAS suggested NHTSA investigate implementing a CAFE program based on the attributes of a vehicle, so separate standards for vehicles with similar attributes could exist.
