With every North American truck maker having temporarily wound down production, the near-term forecast for new truck builds is dismal, and coronavirus-fueled trepidation will soon filter its way into the used market.
The volume of 4-7 year-old trucks sold at auction, according to J.D. Power, was “healthy” in February, rebounding from a typically seasonally low in January. In-person auctions this month have been scaled back in favor of online, which limited sales volume in the first two weeks and indicated volumes this month could drop by as much as 50%.
Last week, however, there was a bounce back in truck numbers, giving reason for optimism about month’s end.
“I just saw a new batch of data from last week’s auctions at one of the auction houses, which shows volume a lot higher than I thought it would be,” said J.D. Power Senior Analyst and Product Manager of Commercial Vehicles Chris Visser. “It it looks like March could end up similar to February in terms of auction sales volume.”
February’s volume was the highest in more than two years but truck pricing was weak. Auction pricing in the first two weeks of March reflected buyer wariness, which Visser said “should surprise no one. There were still buyers out there, but depreciation was higher than in the first two months of the year,” he said. “Once the short-term spike in consumer stockpiling recedes, the shift in freight demand will combine with the used truck oversupply to create a difficult pricing environment.”
Improved depreciation had been a bright spot during the first 60 days of 2020, with rates at auction averaging 1.8% per month through February, “a welcome change from the 3%-plus we’re used to,” Visser said. Retail pricing was stronger than expected in February, with two- and three-year-old models commanding marginally higher prices than the month before. Retail depreciation is averaging 2.6% per month so far this year, “notably better than the second half of 2019, and not far from what we consider historically typical,” he added.
