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On Record: Meanwhile, in the dirt

May 28, 2009 |

It’s the time of year for the parade of the prognosticators. With housing making the long-expected turn downward after such a prolonged boom – the Portland Cement Association says it expects housing starts to dip to 1.76 million next year, down from this year’s anticipated 1.9 million – the question quickly becomes, “how will 2007 fare?”

The answer I’m hearing from all quarters is “decent.” While it won’t come near what we’ve experienced this year, neither is the R-word anywhere on the horizon. Non-residential construction will be 2007’s shining star, particularly anything to do with energy, such as refinery rebuilds, power plant construction and transmission lines.

But, as Ken Simonson, economist with the Associated General Contractors of America, told me, “Next year, the world will look much different to a subdivision site developer than it will to an industrial contractor.”

That’s borne out by a sampling of about 20 contractors I surveyed last month. Here’s what they’re saying on the front lines:

“There’s tremendous opportunity for many contractors in the coming year, especially those in the public work sector. Our experience has been when the residential or private market begins to dip, the public works sector begins to climb. We are fortunate enough to work in both sectors.” – George Forni, Aquatic Environments, Alamo, California